Week 15 2021 · December 20, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Bears, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Bears 17–9, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:20 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 17 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Vikings lucky · −54 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Bears win 5.
- 1 MIN 26 CHI 3
- 2 MIN 30 CHI 15
- 3 MIN 17 CHI 6
- 4 MIN 24 CHI 17
- 5 MIN 20 CHI 17
- 6 MIN 15 CHI 17
- 7 MIN 10 CHI 16
- 8 MIN 3 CHI 13
- 9 MIN 10 CHI 27
- 10 MIN 14 CHI 38
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 46% of them, Bears 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 9.8% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 14.5% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| Bears by 17+ | 13.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Joseph, 37 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Santos, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- C. Santos, 49 yds blocked · 65% expected
Penalties: Vikings 7 for 54 yards, Bears 9 for 91 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:26 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +2.1 pts |
| Q1 1:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Deon Bush), 15 yards | +5% MIN +2.3 pts |
| Q1 0:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears, 12 yards | +4% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:32 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:17 | Low Block on the Bears (Teez Tabor), 15 yards | +5% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Trevis Gipson), 15 yards | +6% MIN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:51 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears, 12 yards | +1% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:09 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:09 | Defensive Offside on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 12:32 | False Start on the Vikings (Harrison Hand), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (James Lynch), 15 yards | +1% CHI +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:50 | Disqualification on the Vikings (Eric Kendricks), 7 yards | +1% CHI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:43 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 7 yards | 0% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.4 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:20 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:09 | The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIN | CHI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:21 | The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIN | MIN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 0:37 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +8% MIN | CHI: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:33 | C. Santos had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him, 11 of 18 from 45+ before | +8% MIN | CHI: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 10:17 | Low Block on the Bears (Teez Tabor), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 84 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +5% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Trevis Gipson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 532 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:02 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +6% MIN | CHI: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.fields · 2.5 pts
- Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Allen Robinson (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Jason Peters (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
- Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Larry Borom (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Tashaun Gipson (CHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Artie Burns (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Marquise Goodwin (CHI WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- DeAndre Houston-Carson (CHI FS), out · 0.2 pts
- Everson Griffen (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 21% · Bears 79%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 8
- Luck in points
- 18.2 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 46% · Bears 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · 
Vikings · 
Bears
More from Week 15 2021
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Patriots at Colts IND 27–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Lions DET 30–12 · replay 18% for the winner
- Panthers at Bills BUF 31–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 21–6 · replay 74% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 30–16 · replay 31% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 31–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Titans at Steelers PIT 19–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers SF 31–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos CIN 15–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Packers at Ravens GB 31–30 · replay 80% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 9–0 · replay 16% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 27–17 · replay 94% for the winner