Week 15 2021 · December 21, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Washington at Eagles, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat Washington 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Washington.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:35 left): the Eagles fumbled and Washington recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Washington.
Final
 Washington Football Team | 17 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Eagles about even · −6 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington wins 1, Eagles win 9.
- 1 WAS 26 PHI 17
- 2 WAS 20 PHI 23
- 3 WAS 23 PHI 28
- 4 WAS 23 PHI 31
- 5 WAS 20 PHI 31
- 6 WAS 13 PHI 27
- 7 WAS 14 PHI 31
- 8 WAS 17 PHI 38
- 9 WAS 17 PHI 42
- 10 WAS 10 PHI 44
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington wins 6% of them, Eagles 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 4.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 60.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Johnson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Elliott, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Washington 2 for 25 yards, Eagles 4 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:48 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 13:35 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +1% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:04 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Offensive Holding on Washington (Nate Orchard), 10 yards | +4% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 23 yards | +4% WAS +2.3 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | Illegal Blindside Block on Washington, 15 yards | +2% PHI +1.4 pts |
Washington penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:35 | The Eagles fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% WAS | PHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:15 | Washington fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:34 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:04 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% WAS | WAS: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 9:28 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1857 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +4% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 8:13 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:37 | Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% WAS | WAS: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Taylor Heinicke (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by g.gilbert · 2.8 pts
- Kendall Fuller (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kamren Curl (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Joey Slye (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 0% · Eagles 100%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 10
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 9.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 6% · Eagles 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · 
Washington · 
Eagles
More from Week 15 2021
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Patriots at Colts IND 27–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Lions DET 30–12 · replay 18% for the winner
- Panthers at Bills BUF 31–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 21–6 · replay 74% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 30–16 · replay 31% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 31–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Titans at Steelers PIT 19–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers SF 31–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos CIN 15–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Packers at Ravens GB 31–30 · replay 80% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 9–0 · replay 16% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 17–9 · replay 46% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner