2021 season · final
Philadelphia Eagles, 2021: game by game
The Eagles went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Falcons | W 32–6 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | L 11–17 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 3 | @ Cowboys | L 21–41 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 30–42 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 5 | @ Panthers | W 21–18 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 6 | vs Buccaneers | L 22–28 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 7 | @ Raiders | L 22–33 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 8 | @ Lions | W 44–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | vs Chargers | L 24–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 10 | @ Broncos | W 30–13 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 11 | vs Saints | W 40–29 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 12 | @ Giants | L 7–13 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | W 33–18 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 15 | vs Washington | W 27–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 16 | vs Giants | W 34–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | @ Washington | W 20–16 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 18 | vs Cowboys | L 26–51 | 7% | −7 |
| Wild Card | @ Buccaneers | L 15–31 | 10% | −10 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.40 | +16.3 |
| Kicks | +0.15 | +11.5 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.07 | −2.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.13 | +2.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.24 | −11.6 |