luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 8, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 51–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:15 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 51
Philadelphia Eagles 26

January 8, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 43 PHI 10
  2. 2 DAL 37 PHI 10
  3. 3 DAL 43 PHI 21
  4. 4 DAL 35 PHI 17
  5. 5 DAL 38 PHI 23
  6. 6 DAL 20 PHI 10
  7. 7 DAL 24 PHI 17
  8. 8 DAL 20 PHI 14
  9. 9 DAL 22 PHI 20
  10. 10 DAL 21 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 94% of them, Eagles 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+55.8%
Cowboys by 9–1622.9%
Cowboys by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Eagles by 1–84.3%
Eagles by 9–161.4%
Eagles by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 23.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:26 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:26 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:06 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q2 14:55 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 12:28 J. Elliott made 38-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:15 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Steven Nelson (PHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Sweat (PHI DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (PHI DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Harris (PHI FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Singleton (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Herbig (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Eagles 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 25
Luck in points
1.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 23.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 94% · Eagles 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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