luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Texans, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 28–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:22 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 45 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 28
Houston Texans 25

January 9, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Titans −10.5

Luck index +26 Titans lucky · −26 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 7, Texans win 3.

  1. 1 TEN 38 HOU 13
  2. 2 TEN 31 HOU 12
  3. 3 TEN 30 HOU 16
  4. 4 TEN 35 HOU 24
  5. 5 TEN 33 HOU 26
  6. 6 TEN 25 HOU 21
  7. 7 TEN 26 HOU 24
  8. 8 TEN 20 HOU 23
  9. 9 TEN 17 HOU 26
  10. 10 TEN 7 HOU 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 74% of them, Texans 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+22.8%
Titans by 9–1621.9%
Titans by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation4.1%
Texans by 1–814.4%
Texans by 9–166.8%
Texans by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 3, without the luck Texans by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 5 for 42 yards, Texans 4 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jordan Wilkins), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 14:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 6 yards +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 11:37 Encroachment on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:12 Illegal Substitution on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 1:34 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 45 yards, wiping out the play +11% TEN +4.7 pts
Q3 9:41 Chop Block on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 11 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q3 8:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 4:38 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:52 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 3:16 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
3 Q1 1:26 R. Bullock missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +10% HOU TEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:31 The Texans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 0:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 45 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2251 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:20 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:44 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% TEN TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Reid (HOU SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Conley (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 42% · Texans 58%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
4.1 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 74% · Texans 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Titans · Texans

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