luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Giants, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Giants 22–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, Washington win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff Washington were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:48 left): Return touchdown by Washington, worth 18 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 22
New York Giants 7

January 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Washington −6

Luck index +8 Washington about even · −8 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 31 NYG 3
  2. 2 WAS 32 NYG 10
  3. 3 WAS 28 NYG 9
  4. 4 WAS 23 NYG 7
  5. 5 WAS 23 NYG 10
  6. 6 WAS 17 NYG 7
  7. 7 WAS 17 NYG 10
  8. 8 WAS 19 NYG 14
  9. 9 WAS 17 NYG 15
  10. 10 WAS 5 NYG 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 92% of them, Giants 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+51.0%
Washington by 9–1623.4%
Washington by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Giants by 1–85.1%
Giants by 9–161.3%
Giants by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:43 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 5:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington, 6 yardsPre-snap flags +9% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 2:47 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% WAS NYG: Punt
4 Q2 7:27 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Punt
5 Q2 3:24 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% NYG WAS: Punt
6 Q3 3:48 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +18% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 12:55 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by j.fromm · 1.9 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kadarius Toney (NYG WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brian Johnson (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Washington by 15
Luck in points
4.4 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Washington 92% · Giants 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Washington · Giants

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