Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Ravens, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Ravens 16–13, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 2:28 left): the Steelers converted 4th & 8, worth 36 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final (OT)
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +86 Steelers very lucky · −86 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Ravens win 9.
- 1 PIT 29 BAL 21
- 2 PIT 25 BAL 27
- 3 PIT 22 BAL 28
- 4 PIT 19 BAL 27
- 5 PIT 20 BAL 31
- 6 PIT 17 BAL 31
- 7 PIT 6 BAL 23
- 8 PIT 18 BAL 38
- 9 PIT 21 BAL 47
- 10 PIT 9 BAL 44
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.04 | worse by 0.06 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.10 | better by 0.15 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.13 | worse by 0.18 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.13 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 14% of them, Ravens 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 47.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
- C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
- C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Steelers 6 for 43 yards, Ravens 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:21 | False Start on the Steelers (Benny Snell Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BAL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:00 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:36 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 10 yards | +3% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 3 yards | +4% BAL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:09 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +20% BAL +3.3 pts |
| Q4 5:57 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:44 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.8 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 11:09 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +20% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 5:57 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +17% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:28 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +15% PIT | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | OT 6:35 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +12% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 5 | OT 5:18 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +17% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | OT 3:28 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +20% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 7 | OT 2:32 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +16% BAL | PIT: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 2:28 | The Steelers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +36% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.0 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Odafe Oweh (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Dan Moore (PIT T), out · 1.0 pts
- Corliss Waitman (PIT P), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 80% · Ravens 20%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 14% · Ravens 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · 
Steelers · 
Ravens
More from Week 18 2021
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 28–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles DAL 51–26 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 31–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Packers at Lions DET 37–30 · replay 50% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 26–11 · replay 80% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 28–25 · replay 74% for the winner
- Washington at Giants WAS 22–7 · replay 93% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 33–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 38–30 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 27–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LV 35–32 · replay 60% for the winner