Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Ravens, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?
The Steelers stole one. They beat the Ravens 16–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 9.1 points to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 2:28 left): the Steelers converted 4th & 8, worth 35 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final (OT)
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Steelers very lucky · −83 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Ravens win 8.
- 1 PIT 44 BAL 30
- 2 PIT 26 BAL 21
- 3 PIT 40 BAL 43
- 4 PIT 17 BAL 23
- 5 PIT 20 BAL 30
- 6 PIT 17 BAL 30
- 7 PIT 13 BAL 30
- 8 PIT 19 BAL 40
- 9 PIT 23 BAL 48
- 10 PIT 7 BAL 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 17% of them, Ravens 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 44.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Steelers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 3.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
- C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
- C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 93% expected
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 11:09 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +20% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 5:57 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +17% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:28 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +15% PIT | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | QOT 6:35 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +15% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 5 | QOT 5:18 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +17% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | QOT 3:28 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +20% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 7 | QOT 2:32 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +17% BAL | PIT: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 2:28 | The Steelers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +35% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.0 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Odafe Oweh (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Dan Moore (PIT T), out · 1.0 pts
- Corliss Waitman (PIT P), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 87% · Ravens 13%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 17% · Ravens 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · 
Steelers · 
Ravens
More from Week 18 2021
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 28–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles DAL 51–26 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 31–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Packers at Lions DET 37–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 26–11 · replay 82% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 28–25 · replay 71% for the winner
- Washington at Giants WAS 22–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 33–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 38–30 · replay 83% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 27–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LV 35–32 · replay 58% for the winner