AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Steelers have won 68.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 53.5. Luck added 15.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2021 (+3.9 wins), the least lucky 2022 (+1.3).
2026: 6–2 so far, replay wins 5.1 (+0.9 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 4–1 | 0.00 | – |
| 2025 | 10–7 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 7–3 | +1.74 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 6–4 | +0.68 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 10–7 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 9–2 | +0.34 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 7–5 | −0.33 | – |
| 2021 | 9–7–1 | 5.6 | +3.9 | 8–2–1 | +1.11 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 12–4 | 9.5 | +2.5 | 7–2 | +0.64 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 8–8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 6–5 | +0.97 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.9 | +0.65 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.87 | +0.24 | −0.15 |
| 2024 | +2.0 | +0.37 | +0.62 | −1.10 | +0.34 | +0.23 | −0.15 |
| 2023 | +1.9 | +0.46 | +0.25 | +0.53 | +0.17 | +0.29 | −0.10 |
| 2022 | +1.3 | −0.19 | +0.69 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.54 | +0.35 |
| 2021 | +3.9 | −0.52 | +1.01 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.20 | +0.08 |
| 2020 | +2.5 | +0.53 | −0.08 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.33 | +0.20 |
| 2019 | +1.5 | +0.95 | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.31 | −0.24 |
| Since 2019 | +15.0 | +2.25 | +3.15 | −0.69 | +2.58 | +2.15 | −0.01 |
Are the Steelers lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Steelers have won 68.5 regular-season games from play worth 53.5: +15.0 wins of luck, the most of any NFL team.
Why have the Steelers been so lucky?
Most of it came from kicks (+3.1 wins) and judgment calls (+2.6 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 50–23–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 36.1 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Steelers’ luckiest season?
2021: 9–7–1 from play worth 5.6 wins, +3.9 of luck. Even their least lucky, 2022, came out ahead (+1.3).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Steelers’ luckiest wins
Wins the Steelers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 10 | @ Commanders | W 28–27 | 5% | +95 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Jets | W 34–32 | 7% | +93 |
| 2024 Week 11 | vs Ravens | W 18–16 | 10% | +90 |
| 2023 Week 18 | @ Ravens | W 17–10 | 11% | +89 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Buccaneers | W 20–18 | 13% | +87 |
The Steelers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Steelers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 14 | vs Ravens | L 14–16 | 74% | −74 |
| 2024 Week 12 | @ Browns | L 19–24 | 74% | −74 |
| 2023 Week 11 | @ Browns | L 10–13 | 71% | −71 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Bears | L 28–31 | 69% | −69 |
| 2020 Week 13 | vs Washington | L 17–23 | 69% | −69 |
