luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 21, 2024

Steelers at Browns, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 24–19, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 1.7 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:28 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 19
Cleveland Browns 24

November 21, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +72 Browns very lucky · −72 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Browns win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 33 CLE 6
  2. 2 PIT 22 CLE 3
  3. 3 PIT 24 CLE 9
  4. 4 PIT 28 CLE 17
  5. 5 PIT 13 CLE 6
  6. 6 PIT 17 CLE 13
  7. 7 PIT 10 CLE 7
  8. 8 PIT 7 CLE 10
  9. 9 PIT 19 CLE 26
  10. 10 PIT 14 CLE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 72% of them, Browns 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+21.7%
Steelers by 9–1622.4%
Steelers by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation4.4%
Browns by 1–815.4%
Browns by 9–167.1%
Browns by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 58 yds missed · 57% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:30 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% CLE PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 13:35 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q3 7:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 6:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:28 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +37% PIT CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:36 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +25% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 11% · Browns 89%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
4.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 72% · Browns 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Steelers · Browns

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