luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · November 21, 2024–November 25

Week 12 2024: who deserved to win

4 of 13 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Steelers 24–19 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 12 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cowboys 34–26 @ Commanders 22% 34% Lucky
Titans 32–27 @ Texans 28% 55% Coin flip
Browns 24–19 vs Steelers 40% 26% Lucky
Seahawks 16–6 vs Cardinals 47% 39% Lucky

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 24–19 vs Steelers 26% +74
2 Broncos W 29–19 @ Raiders 29% +71
3 Cowboys W 34–26 @ Commanders 34% +66
4 Seahawks W 16–6 vs Cardinals 39% +61
5 Titans W 32–27 @ Texans 55% +45
6 Ravens W 30–23 @ Chargers 85% +15
7 Vikings W 30–27 @ Bears 89% +11
8 Dolphins W 34–15 vs Patriots 89% +11
9 Buccaneers W 30–7 @ Giants 93% +7
10 Eagles W 37–20 @ Rams 94% +6
11 Chiefs W 30–27 @ Panthers 95% +5
12 Packers W 38–10 vs 49ers 96% +4
13 Lions W 24–6 @ Colts 97% +3
14 Colts L 6–24 vs Lions 3% −3
15 49ers L 10–38 @ Packers 4% −4
16 Panthers L 27–30 vs Chiefs 5% −5
17 Rams L 20–37 vs Eagles 6% −6
18 Giants L 7–30 vs Buccaneers 7% −7
19 Patriots L 15–34 @ Dolphins 11% −11
20 Bears L 27–30 vs Vikings 11% −11
21 Chargers L 23–30 vs Ravens 15% −15
22 Texans L 27–32 vs Titans 45% −45
23 Cardinals L 6–16 @ Seahawks 61% −61
24 Commanders L 26–34 vs Cowboys 66% −66
25 Raiders L 19–29 vs Broncos 71% −71
26 Steelers L 19–24 @ Browns 74% −74