luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2024: game by game

The Rams went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–5.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions L 20–26 24% −24
Week 2 @ Cardinals L 10–41 21% −21
Week 3 vs 49ers W 27–24 30% +70
Week 4 @ Bears L 18–24 72% −72
Week 5 vs Packers L 19–24 33% −33
Week 7 vs Raiders W 20–15 88% +12
Week 8 vs Vikings W 30–20 68% +32
Week 9 @ Seahawks W 26–20 38% +62
Week 10 vs Dolphins L 15–23 72% −72
Week 11 @ Patriots W 28–22 91% +9
Week 12 vs Eagles L 20–37 5% −5
Week 13 @ Saints W 21–14 75% +25
Week 14 vs Bills W 44–42 40% +60
Week 15 @ 49ers W 12–6 60% +40
Week 16 @ Jets W 19–9 84% +16
Week 17 vs Cardinals W 13–9 17% +83
Week 18 vs Seahawks L 25–30 58% −58
Wild Card vs Vikings W 27–9 66% +34
Divisional round @ Eagles L 22–28 31% −31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+20.1+1.18
Drops+8.2+0.48
Fumble bounces+6.3+0.37
3rd & 4th downs−3.8−0.22
Kicks−8.8−0.52
Injuries−14.6−0.86