Week 15 2024 · December 12, 2024
Rams at 49ers, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the 49ers 12–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:20 left): the 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 9 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 12 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Rams lucky · −38 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 6, 49ers win 4.
- 1 LA 34 SF 9
- 2 LA 30 SF 13
- 3 LA 24 SF 13
- 4 LA 36 SF 28
- 5 LA 15 SF 10
- 6 LA 16 SF 13
- 7 LA 19 SF 21
- 8 LA 13 SF 18
- 9 LA 20 SF 30
- 10 LA 3 SF 21
Your call
Did the Rams earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 62% of them, 49ers 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 13.7% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 16.5% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 29.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.2% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 12.5% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- J. Karty, 48 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Moody, 47 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Karty, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Karty, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Karty, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Rams 4 for 40 yards, 49ers 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:30 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +2% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards | +4% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:34 | Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:18 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Rams, 15 yards | +8% SF +1.4 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:52 | J. Jennings dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 136 catchable balls before this | +6% LA | SF: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:55 | The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% LA | LA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:02 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% SF | SF: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 8:31 | D. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 211 catchable balls before this | +6% LA | SF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 8:28 | J. Moody made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 11 of 19 from 45+ before | +6% SF | SF: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:49 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +7% SF | LA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 5:20 | The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +9% LA | SF: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:18 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Rams, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% SF | SF: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.2 pts
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Malik Mustapha (SF FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Mitch Wishnowsky (SF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Cobie Durant (LA CB), out · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 80% · 49ers 20%
- Final margin
- Rams by 6
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 62% · 49ers 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Rams · 
49ers
More from Week 15 2024
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 37–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers DAL 30–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 27–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 83% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 87% for the winner