luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Jets at Jaguars, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Jaguars 32–25 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.1 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Jets were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 29 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 32
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

December 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3.5

Luck index +26 Jets lucky · −26 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 JAX 0
  2. 2 NYJ 26 JAX 6
  3. 3 NYJ 20 JAX 6
  4. 4 NYJ 26 JAX 16
  5. 5 NYJ 28 JAX 21
  6. 6 NYJ 24 JAX 20
  7. 7 NYJ 23 JAX 21
  8. 8 NYJ 17 JAX 20
  9. 9 NYJ 23 JAX 30
  10. 10 NYJ 3 JAX 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 74% of them, Jaguars 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+23.8%
Jets by 9–1621.0%
Jets by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Jaguars by 1–814.9%
Jaguars by 9–166.4%
Jaguars by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Carlson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • A. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1342 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q3 10:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 576 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +18% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:53 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +14% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +17% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 1:41 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +25% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:44 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.8 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Conklin (NYJ TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 81% · Jaguars 19%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
3.2 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 74% · Jaguars 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Jets · Jaguars

More from Week 15 2024