Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024
Cowboys at Panthers, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Panthers 30–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 9.0 points to the Panthers.
Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): B. Aubrey missed 70-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 30 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Cowboys about even · −19 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Panthers win 2.
- 1 DAL 38 CAR 10
- 2 DAL 38 CAR 17
- 3 DAL 20 CAR 3
- 4 DAL 30 CAR 17
- 5 DAL 27 CAR 17
- 6 DAL 24 CAR 17
- 7 DAL 22 CAR 17
- 8 DAL 37 CAR 34
- 9 DAL 17 CAR 20
- 10 DAL 16 CAR 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 81% of them, Panthers 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 32.3% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Cowboys by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 27.8.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 76% expected
- B. Aubrey, 70 yds missed · 54% expected
- B. Aubrey, 45 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 87% expected
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:00 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +9% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 12:04 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +8% CAR | DAL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:52 | The Panthers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% DAL | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:08 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +11% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:07 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:28 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +21% DAL | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:45 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% CAR | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:03 | B. Aubrey missed 70-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 30 of 31 from 45+ before | +23% CAR | DAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Nick Scott (CAR SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out · 0.4 pts
- Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 99% · Panthers 1%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 16
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 27.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 81% · Panthers 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Cowboys · 
Panthers
More from Week 15 2024
- Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 37–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 74% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 27–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 86% for the winner