Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024
Cowboys at Panthers, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Panthers 30–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:28 left): the Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 30 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Cowboys about even · −11 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Panthers win 1.
- 1 DAL 35 CAR 6
- 2 DAL 30 CAR 7
- 3 DAL 33 CAR 14
- 4 DAL 32 CAR 16
- 5 DAL 27 CAR 15
- 6 DAL 23 CAR 13
- 7 DAL 16 CAR 9
- 8 DAL 17 CAR 13
- 9 DAL 16 CAR 14
- 10 DAL 17 CAR 24
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.09 | better by 0.26 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.13 | better by 0.07 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.01 | better by 0.05 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.13 | worse by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 89% of them, Panthers 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 48.5% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 76% expected
- B. Aubrey, 70 yds missed · 20% expected
- B. Aubrey, 45 yds made · 89% expected
- B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 14 for 99 yards, Panthers 8 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:00 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +9% CAR +3.0 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:46 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yards | +3% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:24 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Israel Mukuamu), 10 yards | +2% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:14 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +2% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:14 | False Start on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:18 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards | +3% DAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CAR +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:23 | False Start on the Panthers (Deven Thompkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:13 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 10:58 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:03 | False Start on the Panthers (Adam Thielen), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:34 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Andrew Booth), 20 yards | +1% CAR +3.5 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 4 yards | 0% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:25 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards | 0% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:51 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 5 yards | 0% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Carl Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.1 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:00 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +9% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 8:23 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 2:52 | The Panthers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% DAL | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:14 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:08 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:28 | The Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% DAL | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:03 | B. Aubrey missed a 70-yard field goalKicks · 20% expected for him, 30 of 31 from 45+ before | +8% CAR | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 14:56 | The Panthers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% DAL | CAR: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nick Scott (CAR SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.0 pts
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out · 0.4 pts
- Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 97% · Panthers 3%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 16
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 20.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 89% · Panthers 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Cowboys · 
Panthers
More from Week 15 2024
- Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 · replay 62% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 37–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 27–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 83% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 87% for the winner