luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 16, 2024

Falcons at Raiders, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Raiders 15–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.7 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): the Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 39 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 15
Las Vegas Raiders 9

December 16, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −6.5

Luck index +14 Falcons about even · −14 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 31 LV 0
  2. 2 ATL 26 LV 3
  3. 3 ATL 27 LV 10
  4. 4 ATL 25 LV 10
  5. 5 ATL 29 LV 17
  6. 6 ATL 30 LV 20
  7. 7 ATL 18 LV 10
  8. 8 ATL 13 LV 7
  9. 9 ATL 16 LV 13
  10. 10 ATL 12 LV 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 86% of them, Raiders 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+40.7%
Falcons by 9–1623.7%
Falcons by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Raiders by 1–88.6%
Raiders by 9–163.0%
Raiders by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% LV LV: Turnover
2 Q1 9:21 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ATL LV: Punt
3 Q1 6:24 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% LV ATL: Punt
4 Q2 11:49 D. Carlson made 52-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 47 of 62 from 45+ before +5% LV LV: Safety
5 Q2 4:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q3 12:26 Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:40 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedJ. Meyers dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 225 catchable balls before this +13% ATL LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:02 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +39% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out · 1.5 pts
  • Aidan O'Connell (LV QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.1 pts
  • DJ Turner (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 73% · Raiders 27%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
6.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 86% · Raiders 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Falcons · Raiders

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