luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2024 · December 16, 2024

Falcons at Raiders, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Raiders 15–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): the Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 27 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 15
Las Vegas Raiders 9

December 16, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −6.5

Luck index +13 Falcons about even · −13 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 28 LV 0
  2. 2 ATL 33 LV 10
  3. 3 ATL 24 LV 6
  4. 4 ATL 22 LV 7
  5. 5 ATL 23 LV 10
  6. 6 ATL 23 LV 12
  7. 7 ATL 27 LV 19
  8. 8 ATL 29 LV 24
  9. 9 ATL 17 LV 15
  10. 10 ATL 6 LV 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 87% of them, Raiders 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+42.0%
Falcons by 9–1623.7%
Falcons by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Raiders by 1–89.0%
Raiders by 9–163.0%
Raiders by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 6, without the luck Falcons by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • Y. Koo, 42 yds missed · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 30 yards, Raiders 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 8:41 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 6:24 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 3:40 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.4 pts
Q3 14:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +1.0 pts
Q3 8:04 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 5:18 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Falcons (Ross Dwelley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 9:48 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 2:44 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Robert Spillane), 15 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 1:33 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 0:35 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% LV LV: Turnover
2 Q2 11:49 D. Carlson made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 47 of 62 from 45+ before +5% LV LV: Safety
3 Q2 4:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q3 14:52 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +4% LV ATL: Field goal
5 Q3 14:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 17 flags in 4336 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 12:26 Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:40 J. Meyers dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 225 catchable balls before this +15% ATL LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:02 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +27% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out · 1.5 pts
  • Aidan O'Connell (LV QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.1 pts
  • DJ Turner (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 72% · Raiders 28%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
5.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 87% · Raiders 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Falcons · Raiders

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