luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Commanders at Saints, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Saints 20–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): the Saints’ two-point try failed, worth 43 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
New Orleans Saints 19

December 15, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Commanders −7.5

Luck index +36 Commanders lucky · −36 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 31 NO 10
  2. 2 WAS 23 NO 7
  3. 3 WAS 24 NO 14
  4. 4 WAS 17 NO 10
  5. 5 WAS 7 NO 3
  6. 6 WAS 13 NO 10
  7. 7 WAS 17 NO 19
  8. 8 WAS 14 NO 19
  9. 9 WAS 20 NO 30
  10. 10 WAS 14 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 64% of them, Saints 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+14.4%
Commanders by 9–1620.2%
Commanders by 1–829.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–819.6%
Saints by 9–1610.3%
Saints by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 1, without the luck Saints by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • G. Joseph, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 9 for 84 yards, Saints 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% WAS +2.8 pts
Q1 7:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Payton Turner), 13 yards +8% WAS +2.4 pts
Q1 6:37 Illegal Shift on the Commanders (Olamide Zaccheaus), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NO +1.4 pts
Q1 5:58 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +2% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 13:12 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 10 yards +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 10:43 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Brian Robinson Jr.), 10 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q3 6:43 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 1:39 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 14:04 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% NO +1.9 pts
Q4 12:05 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 15 yards +3% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 8:19 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 8 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 8:02 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 15 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NO +3.0 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Payton Turner), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 828 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:12 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedOffensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1458 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +6% NO WAS: Punt
4 Q4 7:13 The Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q4 2:00 G. Joseph missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 21 of 39 from 45+ before +8% NO –
6 Q4 0:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% WAS NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:17 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:00 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +43% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.7 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bub Means (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (WAS C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 57% · Saints 43%

Final margin
Commanders by 1
Luck in points
5.5 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 64% · Saints 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Commanders · Saints

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