luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Commanders at Saints, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Saints 20–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 5.7 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): the Saints’ two-point try failed, worth 43 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
New Orleans Saints 19

December 15, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Commanders −7.5

Luck index +46 Commanders lucky · −46 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 29 NO 7
  2. 2 WAS 26 NO 10
  3. 3 WAS 19 NO 10
  4. 4 WAS 20 NO 14
  5. 5 WAS 13 NO 10
  6. 6 WAS 20 NO 22
  7. 7 WAS 21 NO 25
  8. 8 WAS 19 NO 27
  9. 9 WAS 13 NO 26
  10. 10 WAS 14 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 54% of them, Saints 46%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+10.7%
Commanders by 9–1615.8%
Commanders by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation7.8%
Saints by 1–823.2%
Saints by 9–1613.7%
Saints by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 4.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Grupe, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Grupe, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • G. Joseph, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Payton Turner), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 828 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:36 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% WAS NO: Punt
4 Q4 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:00 G. Joseph missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 21 of 39 from 45+ before +8% NO –
6 Q4 0:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% WAS NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:17 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:00 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +43% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.7 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bub Means (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (WAS C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 61% · Saints 39%

Final margin
Commanders by 1
Luck in points
5.8 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 54% · Saints 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Commanders · Saints

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