2024 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2024: game by game
The Saints went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.2 wins. Luck cost them 2.2: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Panthers | W 47–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | @ Cowboys | W 44–19 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 3 | vs Eagles | L 12–15 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 4 | @ Falcons | L 24–26 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 5 | @ Chiefs | L 13–26 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 6 | vs Buccaneers | L 27–51 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 7 | vs Broncos | L 10–33 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | L 8–26 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | L 22–23 | 89% | −89 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | W 20–17 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 11 | vs Browns | W 35–14 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 13 | vs Rams | L 14–21 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 14 | @ Giants | W 14–11 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 15 | vs Commanders | L 19–20 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 16 | @ Packers | L 0–34 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 17 | vs Raiders | L 10–25 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 18 | @ Buccaneers | L 19–27 | 13% | −13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.55 | +14.9 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −2.0 |
| Drops | −0.17 | −18.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.31 | −10.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.36 | −3.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.53 | −9.8 |
| Injuries | −0.81 | −33.3 |