luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Panthers at Saints, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 47–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 1.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:16 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
New Orleans Saints 47

September 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +1 Saints about even · −1 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 20 NO 23
  2. 2 CAR 14 NO 23
  3. 3 CAR 24 NO 37
  4. 4 CAR 10 NO 26
  5. 5 CAR 7 NO 26
  6. 6 CAR 13 NO 34
  7. 7 CAR 3 NO 27
  8. 8 CAR 9 NO 37
  9. 9 CAR 19 NO 51
  10. 10 CAR 0 NO 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 1% of them, Saints 99%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.1%
Panthers by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.1%
Saints by 1–82.9%
Saints by 9–1610.8%
Saints by 17+85.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 37. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 30.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 57 yds made · 62% expected
  • B. Grupe, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. Grupe, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +15% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:02 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% NO CAR: Punt
3 Q1 11:54 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +3% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q1 10:16 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% CAR NO: Field goal
5 Q1 10:09 B. Grupe made 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 11 of 16 from 45+ before +4% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q2 13:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ja'Tavion Sanders), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +4% NO NO: Field goal
8 Q2 6:15 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% NO CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 37
Luck in points
7.0 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 30.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 1% · Saints 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Panthers · Saints

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