luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Panthers at Saints, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 47–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
New Orleans Saints 47

September 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +1 Saints about even · −1 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 10 NO 13
  2. 2 CAR 3 NO 12
  3. 3 CAR 10 NO 22
  4. 4 CAR 6 NO 21
  5. 5 CAR 5 NO 23
  6. 6 CAR 10 NO 31
  7. 7 CAR 6 NO 30
  8. 8 CAR 0 NO 27
  9. 9 CAR 10 NO 42
  10. 10 CAR 0 NO 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 1% of them, Saints 99%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.1%
Panthers by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.2%
Saints by 1–82.1%
Saints by 9–168.0%
Saints by 17+89.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 37, without the luck Saints by 32.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. Grupe, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. Grupe, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 6 for 80 yards, Saints 10 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Bub Means), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 11:54 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CAR +1.5 pts
Q2 13:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ja'Tavion Sanders), 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +2.9 pts
Q2 11:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Shaq Thompson), 15 yards +2% NO +1.8 pts
Q2 6:05 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +1.7 pts
Q2 2:08 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Trevin Wallace), 10 yards 0% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 1:12 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Chase Young), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% NO +0.3 pts
Q3 14:03 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 13:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yards 0% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 12:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 31 yards 0% NO +3.6 pts
Q3 10:42 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +2.6 pts
Q3 9:48 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 7:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Payton Turner), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.5 pts
Q4 10:38 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards 0% CAR +1.2 pts
Q4 4:37 Kick Catch Interference on the Saints (J.T. Gray), 15 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:02 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +2% NO CAR: Punt
3 Q1 11:54 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +3% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q1 10:09 B. Grupe made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 11 of 16 from 45+ before +3% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% CAR CAR: Punt
6 Q2 13:39 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ja'Tavion Sanders), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +4% NO NO: Field goal
7 Q2 6:15 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% NO CAR: Punt
8 Q2 2:12 B. Grupe made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 12 of 17 from 45+ before +2% NO NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 37
Luck in points
4.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 32.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 1% · Saints 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Panthers · Saints

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