luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 5, 2024

Ravens at Chiefs, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 27–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.4 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Kansas City Chiefs 27

September 5, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3

Luck index +52 Chiefs lucky · −52 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 40 KC 17
  2. 2 BAL 31 KC 17
  3. 3 BAL 30 KC 21
  4. 4 BAL 36 KC 31
  5. 5 BAL 19 KC 17
  6. 6 BAL 31 KC 34
  7. 7 BAL 28 KC 34
  8. 8 BAL 22 KC 31
  9. 9 BAL 17 KC 31
  10. 10 BAL 14 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 52% of them, Chiefs 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+11.3%
Ravens by 9–1614.5%
Ravens by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation5.9%
Chiefs by 1–820.3%
Chiefs by 9–1614.7%
Chiefs by 17+11.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 2.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:20 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:49 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:53 The Ravens fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% KC BAL: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 9:45 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% KC BAL: Missed field goal
5 Q2 8:05 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q3 0:46 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:36 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% KC KC: Punt
8 Q4 0:05 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +16% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Charles Omenihu (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 37% · Chiefs 63%

Final margin
Chiefs by 7
Luck in points
4.3 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 52% · Chiefs 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Ravens · Chiefs

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