luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Cowboys at Browns, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Browns 33–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Browns.

An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:59 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 5, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 33
Cleveland Browns 17

September 8, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 49 CLE 16
  2. 2 DAL 34 CLE 7
  3. 3 DAL 23 CLE 0
  4. 4 DAL 20 CLE 0
  5. 5 DAL 20 CLE 3
  6. 6 DAL 22 CLE 7
  7. 7 DAL 20 CLE 9
  8. 8 DAL 29 CLE 20
  9. 9 DAL 26 CLE 19
  10. 10 DAL 23 CLE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

42 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.13 worse by 0.17
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed −0.57 +0.08 better by 0.64
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.57 +0.05 worse by 0.62
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.01 better by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Browns 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+66.1%
Cowboys by 9–1619.6%
Cowboys by 1–89.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Browns by 1–83.5%
Browns by 9–160.7%
Browns by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 18.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 57 yds made · 58% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:27 K. Turpin dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +5% CLE DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:59 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:10 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q1 1:01 D. Njoku dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 171 catchable balls before this +5% DAL CLE: Punt
5 Q1 0:56 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% DAL CLE: Punt
6 Q2 14:27 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL DAL: Punt
7 Q2 5:08 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CLE CLE: Punt
8 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns (David Njoku), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3068 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +4% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 99% · Browns 1%

Final margin
Cowboys by 16
Luck in points
2.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 18.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Browns 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Cowboys · Browns

More from Week 1 2024