luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2024: game by game

The Cowboys went 7–10 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Browns W 33–17 96% +4
Week 2 vs Saints L 19–44 11% −11
Week 3 vs Ravens L 25–28 6% −6
Week 4 @ Giants W 20–15 91% +9
Week 5 @ Steelers W 20–17 84% +16
Week 6 vs Lions L 9–47 1% −1
Week 8 @ 49ers L 24–30 5% −5
Week 9 @ Falcons L 21–27 33% −33
Week 10 vs Eagles L 6–34 1% −1
Week 11 vs Texans L 10–34 4% −4
Week 12 @ Commanders W 34–26 19% +81
Week 13 vs Giants W 27–20 70% +30
Week 14 vs Bengals L 20–27 11% −11
Week 15 @ Panthers W 30–14 81% +19
Week 16 vs Buccaneers W 26–24 38% +62
Week 17 @ Eagles L 7–41 5% −5
Week 18 vs Commanders L 19–23 51% −51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+53.0+3.12
Drops+6.3+0.37
Rest+0.4+0.02
Fumble bounces−1.6−0.09
Kicks−5.4−0.32
3rd & 4th downs−9.3−0.55
Injuries−69.2−4.07