2024 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2024: game by game
The Cowboys went 7–10 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Browns | W 33–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 2 | vs Saints | L 19–44 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | vs Ravens | L 25–28 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 4 | @ Giants | W 20–15 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Steelers | W 20–17 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 6 | vs Lions | L 9–47 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 8 | @ 49ers | L 24–30 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 9 | @ Falcons | L 21–27 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 10 | vs Eagles | L 6–34 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 11 | vs Texans | L 10–34 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 12 | @ Commanders | W 34–26 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 13 | vs Giants | W 27–20 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 14 | vs Bengals | L 20–27 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 15 | @ Panthers | W 30–14 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | vs Buccaneers | W 26–24 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 17 | @ Eagles | L 7–41 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 18 | vs Commanders | L 19–23 | 24% | −24 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.71 | +24.9 |
| Drops | +0.45 | +9.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.20 | −2.6 |
| Kicks | +0.14 | −3.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.28 | −9.2 |
| Injuries | −1.28 | −50.7 |