luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Lions at Cowboys, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Cowboys 47–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:16 left): Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Detroit Lions 47
Dallas Cowboys 9

October 13, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index 0 Lions about even · 0 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 DET 44 DAL 0
  2. 2 DET 41 DAL 7
  3. 3 DET 49 DAL 20
  4. 4 DET 40 DAL 14
  5. 5 DET 23 DAL 0
  6. 6 DET 42 DAL 23
  7. 7 DET 31 DAL 14
  8. 8 DET 31 DAL 17
  9. 9 DET 35 DAL 24
  10. 10 DET 28 DAL 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 100% of them, Cowboys 0%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+92.4%
Lions by 9–165.5%
Lions by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.2%
Cowboys by 1–80.3%
Cowboys by 9–160.0%
Cowboys by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.8 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 38, without the luck Lions by 29.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Bates, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 47 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Bates, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Bates, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 8 for 63 yards, Cowboys 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:16 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% DAL +4.5 pts
Q1 7:42 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 5 yards +6% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 12:42 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 12:42 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Encroachment on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q3 11:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Carlton Davis), 10 yards 0% DAL +1.7 pts
Q3 9:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 8 yards 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 6:25 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 0:37 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +4.0 pts
Q4 13:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 6:40 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 15 yards 0% DET +1.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 4323 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +13% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:41 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:42 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1191 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
4 Q1 6:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q1 4:39 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +5% DET DAL: Punt
6 Q1 3:11 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q2 12:42 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:43 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% DET DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Lions by 38
Luck in points
8.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 29.2
Replay with same day's form
Lions 100% · Cowboys 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Lions · Cowboys

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