luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Lions at Cowboys, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Cowboys 47–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13.5 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:39 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 24 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 47
Dallas Cowboys 9

October 13, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +1 Lions about even · −1 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 DET 41 DAL 0
  2. 2 DET 35 DAL 3
  3. 3 DET 45 DAL 17
  4. 4 DET 47 DAL 23
  5. 5 DET 37 DAL 16
  6. 6 DET 38 DAL 20
  7. 7 DET 42 DAL 27
  8. 8 DET 34 DAL 23
  9. 9 DET 19 DAL 12
  10. 10 DET 30 DAL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 99% of them, Cowboys 1%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+88.0%
Lions by 9–167.9%
Lions by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Cowboys by 1–80.9%
Cowboys by 9–160.1%
Cowboys by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 38. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 37.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Bates, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 47 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Bates, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Bates, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 4323 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +13% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:28 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% DET DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 10:41 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +14% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:42 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1191 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q1 6:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% DAL DAL: Turnover
6 Q1 4:39 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% DET DAL: Punt
7 Q1 3:11 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q2 11:08 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% DET DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Lions by 38
Luck in points
0.6 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 37.4
Replay with same day's form
Lions 99% · Cowboys 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Lions · Cowboys

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