luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Cardinals at Packers, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cardinals 34–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.5 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 13
Green Bay Packers 34

October 13, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5.5

Luck index +9 Packers about even · −9 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 41 GB 34
  2. 2 ARI 10 GB 13
  3. 3 ARI 24 GB 30
  4. 4 ARI 24 GB 33
  5. 5 ARI 20 GB 31
  6. 6 ARI 20 GB 34
  7. 7 ARI 16 GB 33
  8. 8 ARI 12 GB 33
  9. 9 ARI 10 GB 36
  10. 10 ARI 17 GB 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 9% of them, Packers 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.6%
Cardinals by 9–161.8%
Cardinals by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Packers by 1–816.4%
Packers by 9–1621.6%
Packers by 17+51.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Ryland, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Narveson, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • B. Narveson, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:56 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB GB: Punt
2 Q1 13:10 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% ARI GB: Punt
3 Q1 9:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% ARI ARI: Punt
5 Q2 8:44 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +3% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q2 1:08 The Packers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ARI GB: End of half
7 Q3 9:12 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% GB ARI: Field goal
8 Q3 3:54 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 21
Luck in points
4.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 9% · Packers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Cardinals · Packers

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