luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 51–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:54 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 28 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51
New Orleans Saints 27

October 13, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +8 Buccaneers about even · −8 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 TB 44 NO 7
  2. 2 TB 43 NO 13
  3. 3 TB 52 NO 27
  4. 4 TB 41 NO 20
  5. 5 TB 33 NO 17
  6. 6 TB 36 NO 23
  7. 7 TB 36 NO 26
  8. 8 TB 27 NO 21
  9. 9 TB 35 NO 32
  10. 10 TB 23 NO 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 92% of them, Saints 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+61.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.8%
Buccaneers by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation1.1%
Saints by 1–85.0%
Saints by 9–161.5%
Saints by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 13.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Grupe, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:54 The Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +28% TB NO: Punt
2 Q2 13:18 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +11% NO NO: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 5:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:01 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q2 0:06 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TB TB: Punt
6 Q3 12:29 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedB. Means dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before thisFace Mask on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +15% TB NO: Punt
7 Q3 3:42 Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +16% TB TB: Punt
8 Q4 12:34 The Buccaneers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedB. Irving dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 10 catchable balls before this +9% NO TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.3 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Barton (TB C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Rachaad White (TB RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Saints 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 24
Luck in points
10.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 92% · Saints 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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