luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 14, 2024

Bills at Jets, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.8 points to the Bills.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:01 left): the Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 66 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 23
New York Jets 20

October 14, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −1

Luck index +44 Bills lucky · −44 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 33 NYJ 10
  2. 2 BUF 31 NYJ 16
  3. 3 BUF 27 NYJ 16
  4. 4 BUF 10 NYJ 3
  5. 5 BUF 20 NYJ 16
  6. 6 BUF 26 NYJ 24
  7. 7 BUF 28 NYJ 30
  8. 8 BUF 3 NYJ 10
  9. 9 BUF 10 NYJ 20
  10. 10 BUF 24 NYJ 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 56% of them, Jets 44%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+9.9%
Bills by 9–1616.1%
Bills by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation7.1%
Jets by 1–822.4%
Jets by 9–1613.1%
Jets by 17+8.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds missed · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds missed · 79% expected
  • T. Bass, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:58 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:51 The Jets converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q4 12:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
5 Q4 3:46 T. Bass made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +23% BUF BUF: End of game
6 Q4 2:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1609 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
7 Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% BUF BUF: End of game
8 Q4 2:01 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +66% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Carter II (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Cook (BUF RB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 25% · Jets 75%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
8.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 56% · Jets 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Bills · Jets

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