luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2024 · October 14, 2024

Bills at Jets, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:01 left): the Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 51 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 23
New York Jets 20

October 14, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −1

Luck index +35 Bills lucky · −35 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 BUF 42 NYJ 17
  2. 2 BUF 20 NYJ 3
  3. 3 BUF 21 NYJ 7
  4. 4 BUF 21 NYJ 10
  5. 5 BUF 27 NYJ 20
  6. 6 BUF 22 NYJ 17
  7. 7 BUF 30 NYJ 28
  8. 8 BUF 17 NYJ 20
  9. 9 BUF 16 NYJ 24
  10. 10 BUF 13 NYJ 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 65% of them, Jets 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+16.4%
Bills by 9–1620.7%
Bills by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jets by 1–820.8%
Jets by 9–169.2%
Jets by 17+3.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Jets by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds missed · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • T. Bass, 22 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 11 for 94 yards, Jets 11 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:54 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 11:02 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 10 yards +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 4:07 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 1:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 23 yards +4% BUF +1.5 pts
Q2 0:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 8 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 12:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q3 9:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards +6% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q3 6:13 False Start on the Bills (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q3 3:05 Low Block on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 13 yards +5% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% BUF +3.4 pts
Q3 0:55 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 0:55 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills, 11 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 11:16 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 5:18 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 10 yards +7% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 3:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yards +15% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 3:46 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.2 pts
Q4 2:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 10 yards +9% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +11% BUF +0.9 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q3 0:55 False Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
3 Q4 12:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
4 Q4 3:46 T. Bass made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +22% BUF BUF: End of game
5 Q4 2:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1609 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% BUF BUF: End of game
7 Q4 2:01 The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +51% BUF –
8 Q4 1:45 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% BUF BUF: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Carter II (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Cook (BUF RB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 22% · Jets 78%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
7.5 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Bills 65% · Jets 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Bills · Jets

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