luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Bengals at Giants, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Giants 17–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:14 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
New York Giants 7

October 13, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −4.5

Luck index +33 Bengals lucky · −33 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 CIN 31 NYG 5
  2. 2 CIN 28 NYG 10
  3. 3 CIN 24 NYG 10
  4. 4 CIN 28 NYG 17
  5. 5 CIN 13 NYG 6
  6. 6 CIN 20 NYG 16
  7. 7 CIN 18 NYG 16
  8. 8 CIN 13 NYG 16
  9. 9 CIN 14 NYG 22
  10. 10 CIN 7 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 67% of them, Giants 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+17.1%
Bengals by 9–1620.6%
Bengals by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Giants by 1–817.8%
Giants by 9–169.3%
Giants by 17+4.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 10, without the luck Bengals by 9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds missed · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 45 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 67 yards, Giants 2 for 9 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 3 yards +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q1 7:39 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 5 yards +5% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 12:35 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Burrow), 14 yards +3% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 8:09 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 3:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 4 yards, wiping out the play +20% CIN +5.3 pts
Q3 5:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 18 yards +7% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 1:36 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% NYG +3.4 pts
Q4 1:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 17 yards 0% NYG +1.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q3 1:36 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
4 Q4 10:32 G. Joseph missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 20 of 36 from 45+ before +18% CIN NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:44 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:47 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% CIN NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:05 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% CIN NYG: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Singletary (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 94% · Giants 6%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
1.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 67% · Giants 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Bengals · Giants

More from Week 6 2024