luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Bengals at Giants, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Giants 17–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.0 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:41 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 18, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
New York Giants 7

October 13, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −4.5

Luck index +55 Bengals lucky · −55 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 31 NYG 10
  2. 2 CIN 23 NYG 10
  3. 3 CIN 27 NYG 19
  4. 4 CIN 24 NYG 20
  5. 5 CIN 23 NYG 21
  6. 6 CIN 17 NYG 19
  7. 7 CIN 20 NYG 25
  8. 8 CIN 10 NYG 20
  9. 9 CIN 21 NYG 34
  10. 10 CIN 20 NYG 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 45% of them, Giants 55%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+9.0%
Bengals by 9–1612.6%
Bengals by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation6.1%
Giants by 1–823.6%
Giants by 9–1616.4%
Giants by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 11.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds missed · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 45 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q3 1:36 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
4 Q4 10:32 G. Joseph missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 20 of 36 from 45+ before +18% CIN NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:44 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:47 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% CIN NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:05 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +16% CIN NYG: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Singletary (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 93% · Giants 7%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 45% · Giants 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Bengals · Giants

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