2024 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2024: game by game
The Bengals went 9–8 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.5 wins. Luck cost them 2.5: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–7.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Patriots | L 10–16 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 2 | @ Chiefs | L 25–26 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 3 | vs Commanders | L 33–38 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 4 | @ Panthers | W 34–24 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 5 | vs Ravens | L 38–41 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | W 17–7 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 7 | @ Browns | W 21–14 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | vs Eagles | L 17–37 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | vs Raiders | W 41–24 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 10 | @ Ravens | L 34–35 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 11 | @ Chargers | L 27–34 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 13 | vs Steelers | L 38–44 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 14 | @ Cowboys | W 27–20 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 15 | @ Titans | W 37–27 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 16 | vs Browns | W 24–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 17 | vs Broncos | W 30–24 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | @ Steelers | W 19–17 | 82% | +18 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.29 | +1.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +4.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.08 | −6.5 |
| Drops | +0.07 | −11.8 |
| Injuries | +0.07 | +2.7 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Kicks | −0.41 | −12.5 |