One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Bengals in one-score games

The Bengals are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.0 of those 1. Since 2019: 24–37–1 in 62 one-score games, 27.9 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bengals win in replays (regular season).

2026 0.0 1–0

2025 −1.1 3–5

2024 −2.8 4–7

2023 +2.5 5–4

2022 −0.5 5–3

2021 +0.1 4–5

2020 +0.3 2–5–1

2019 −1.9 0–8

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	1.0 of 1	0.0	2–0
2025	3–5	4.1 of 8	−1.1	6–11
2024	4–7	6.8 of 11	−2.8	9–8
2023	5–4	2.5 of 9	+2.5	9–8
2022	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–4
2021	4–5	3.9 of 9	+0.1	10–7
2020	2–5–1	2.2 of 8	+0.3	4–11–1
2019	0–8	1.9 of 8	−1.9	2–14

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Buccaneers	W 33–27	96%	+4

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Cincinnati Bengals, every season