One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Bengals in one-score games

The Bengals are 3–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 3.4 of those 5. Since 2019: 26–39–1 in 66 one-score games, 31.0 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bengals win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.4 3–2

2025 −1.2 3–5

2024 −3.2 4–7

2023 +2.6 5–4

2022 −0.5 5–3

2021 −0.1 4–5

2020 +0.3 2–5–1

2019 −1.9 0–8

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	3–2	3.4 of 5	−0.4	6–2
2025	3–5	4.2 of 8	−1.2	6–11
2024	4–7	7.2 of 11	−3.2	9–8
2023	5–4	2.4 of 9	+2.6	9–8
2022	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–4
2021	4–5	4.1 of 9	−0.1	10–7
2020	2–5–1	2.2 of 8	+0.3	4–11–1
2019	0–8	1.9 of 8	−1.9	2–14

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Buccaneers	W 33–27	94%	+6
Week 3	@ Steelers	L 27–30	35%	−35
Week 4	vs Jaguars	L 17–22	28%	−28
Week 5	@ Dolphins	W 31–24	90%	+10
Week 8	vs Titans	W 43–36	94%	+6

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Cincinnati Bengals, every season