2022 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2022: game by game
The Bengals went 12–4 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 20–23 | 87% | −87 |
| Week 2 | @ Cowboys | L 17–20 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Jets | W 27–12 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | vs Dolphins | W 27–15 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 5 | @ Ravens | L 17–19 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 6 | @ Saints | W 30–26 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | W 35–17 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | L 13–32 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | W 42–21 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Steelers | W 37–30 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | @ Titans | W 20–16 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 13 | vs Chiefs | W 27–24 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 14 | vs Browns | W 23–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 34–23 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 16 | @ Patriots | W 22–18 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 18 | vs Ravens | W 27–16 | 78% | +22 |
| Wild Card | vs Ravens | W 24–17 | 38% | +62 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | W 27–10 | 76% | +24 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 20–23 | 33% | −33 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +31.0 | +1.94 |
| Injuries | +18.7 | +1.17 |
| Drops | +11.9 | +0.74 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +4.9 | +0.31 |
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +0.20 |
| Rest | +1.0 | +0.06 |
| Kicks | −4.8 | −0.30 |