2022 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2022: game by game
The Bengals went 12–4 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 20–23 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 2 | @ Cowboys | L 17–20 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 3 | @ Jets | W 27–12 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 4 | vs Dolphins | W 27–15 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 5 | @ Ravens | L 17–19 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 6 | @ Saints | W 30–26 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | W 35–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | L 13–32 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | W 42–21 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Steelers | W 37–30 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | @ Titans | W 20–16 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 13 | vs Chiefs | W 27–24 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | vs Browns | W 23–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 34–23 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 16 | @ Patriots | W 22–18 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 18 | vs Ravens | W 27–16 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | vs Ravens | W 24–17 | 57% | +43 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | W 27–10 | 76% | +24 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 20–23 | 17% | −17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.94 | +11.2 |
| Judgment calls | +0.48 | +13.0 |
| Injuries | +0.31 | +13.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.26 | +4.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +3.4 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| Kicks | −0.35 | −5.3 |