Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022
Bengals at Steelers, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Steelers 37–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Steelers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:36 left): E. McPherson made a 54-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 37 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Bengals about even · −5 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Steelers win 1.
- 1 CIN 47 PIT 12
- 2 CIN 45 PIT 17
- 3 CIN 45 PIT 22
- 4 CIN 32 PIT 13
- 5 CIN 40 PIT 24
- 6 CIN 45 PIT 33
- 7 CIN 26 PIT 17
- 8 CIN 29 PIT 23
- 9 CIN 25 PIT 23
- 10 CIN 26 PIT 34
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | +0.14 | better by 0.19 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.07 | +0.08 | better by 0.15 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.07 | +0.03 | worse by 0.11 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.13 | worse by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 95% of them, Steelers 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 66.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 9.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 78% expected
- M. Wright, 42 yds made · 81% expected
- M. Wright, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- M. Wright, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 61% expected
- E. McPherson, 44 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Bengals 6 for 44 yards, Steelers 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:20 | False Start on the Bengals (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:16 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards | +5% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:58 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Devin Asiasi), 8 yards | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Tre Flowers), 5 yards | +5% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 16 yards | +7% PIT +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:15 | Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Bengals (Trent Taylor), 5 yards | +2% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:31 | False Start on the Bengals (Devin Asiasi), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:56 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 10 yards | +6% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:36 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | Disqualification on the Steelers, 15 yards | +1% CIN +1.4 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 16 yardsJudgment calls | +7% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:35 | The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +9% PIT | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:25 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:27 | The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +8% PIT | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:36 | E. McPherson made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before | +12% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:20 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 11:45 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% PIT | CIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:36 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kevin Huber (CIN P), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 84% · Steelers 16%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 95% · Steelers 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · 
Bengals · 
Steelers
More from Week 11 2022
- Titans at Packers TEN 27–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Ravens BAL 13–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns vs Bills BUF 31–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Lions at Giants DET 31–18 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rams at Saints NO 27–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 10–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Colts PHI 17–16 · replay 75% for the winner
- Commanders at Texans WAS 23–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 22–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 40–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 30–27 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers vs Cardinals SF 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner