luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Cowboys at Vikings, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Vikings 40–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 40
Minnesota Vikings 3

November 20, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Vikings win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 41 MIN 10
  2. 2 DAL 31 MIN 7
  3. 3 DAL 27 MIN 7
  4. 4 DAL 19 MIN 3
  5. 5 DAL 19 MIN 6
  6. 6 DAL 24 MIN 14
  7. 7 DAL 21 MIN 13
  8. 8 DAL 24 MIN 20
  9. 9 DAL 23 MIN 21
  10. 10 DAL 10 MIN 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 93% of them, Vikings 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+52.1%
Cowboys by 9–1622.9%
Cowboys by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Vikings by 1–85.1%
Vikings by 9–161.2%
Vikings by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.4 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 37, without the luck Cowboys by 26.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • B. Maher, 60 yds made · 59% expected
  • B. Maher, 50 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 39 yards, Vikings 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 9 yards +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 9:04 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Carlos Watkins), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 7:12 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% MIN +1.4 pts
Q2 1:05 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 11:49 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 9 yards 0% DAL +1.0 pts
Q3 7:35 Taunting on the Vikings (Dalvin Cook), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q3 6:51 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 6:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.1 pts
Q3 2:58 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 5 yards 0% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 2:23 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 1:57 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q3 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 3:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Neville Gallimore), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:52 The Vikings fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DAL MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 10:25 B. Maher made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +4% MIN DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:08 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q1 6:45 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% DAL MIN: Field goal
5 Q1 5:43 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:20 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% DAL MIN: Punt
7 Q2 7:52 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q2 5:36 B. Maher made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 10 of 19 from 45+ before +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Barr (DAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Vikings 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 37
Luck in points
10.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 26.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 93% · Vikings 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Cowboys · Vikings

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