luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Panthers at Ravens, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Panthers 13–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.8 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:37 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 3
Baltimore Ravens 13

November 20, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −13

Luck index +6 Ravens about even · −6 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 30 BAL 23
  2. 2 CAR 24 BAL 27
  3. 3 CAR 26 BAL 32
  4. 4 CAR 17 BAL 26
  5. 5 CAR 0 BAL 12
  6. 6 CAR 19 BAL 34
  7. 7 CAR 0 BAL 19
  8. 8 CAR 10 BAL 32
  9. 9 CAR 3 BAL 29
  10. 10 CAR 13 BAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 6% of them, Ravens 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.3%
Panthers by 9–161.4%
Panthers by 1–84.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Ravens by 1–814.2%
Ravens by 9–1619.0%
Ravens by 17+60.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 11.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% BAL BAL: Turnover
2 Q3 10:40 D. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 49 catchable balls before this +7% BAL CAR: Field goal
3 Q3 10:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +16% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 9:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +7% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q3 8:57 T. Marshall dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 22 catchable balls before this +7% BAL CAR: Field goal
6 Q3 5:42 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q3 4:34 Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q3 4:21 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +7% CAR BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Myles Hartsfield (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 1% · Ravens 99%

Final margin
Ravens by 10
Luck in points
1.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 6% · Ravens 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Panthers · Ravens

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