luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Panthers at Ravens, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Panthers 13–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:37 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 3
Baltimore Ravens 13

November 20, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −13

Luck index +7 Ravens about even · −7 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 16 BAL 10
  2. 2 CAR 14 BAL 17
  3. 3 CAR 27 BAL 34
  4. 4 CAR 14 BAL 23
  5. 5 CAR 20 BAL 33
  6. 6 CAR 7 BAL 23
  7. 7 CAR 14 BAL 33
  8. 8 CAR 14 BAL 36
  9. 9 CAR 7 BAL 34
  10. 10 CAR 10 BAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 7% of them, Ravens 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.3%
Panthers by 9–161.6%
Panthers by 1–84.4%
Level after regulation0.6%
Ravens by 1–815.5%
Ravens by 9–1618.9%
Ravens by 17+58.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 10, without the luck Ravens by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 9 for 66 yards, Ravens 10 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 7:42 Running Into the Kicker on the Ravens, 5 yards 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q1 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 12:46 Face Mask on the Panthers, 15 yards +1% BAL +1.4 pts
Q2 5:08 Chop Block on the Panthers (Chuba Hubbard), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.2 pts
Q2 4:13 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q3 13:55 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 6 yards +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 9:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 12 yards +7% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 4:34 Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the play +11% CAR +3.0 pts
Q3 2:43 Face Mask on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 1:33 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 0:45 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 9:19 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 7:45 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q4 7:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens, 15 yards +2% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (James Proche), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 4:25 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 2:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q4 1:45 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% BAL BAL: Turnover
2 Q2 9:26 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% CAR BAL: Field goal
3 Q3 10:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 9:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +7% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q3 8:57 T. Marshall dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 22 catchable balls before this +6% BAL CAR: Field goal
6 Q3 5:42 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q3 4:34 Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q4 8:22 The Panthers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Myles Hartsfield (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 2% · Ravens 98%

Final margin
Ravens by 10
Luck in points
0.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 7% · Ravens 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Panthers · Ravens

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