Week 11 2022 · November 21, 2022
49ers vs Cardinals, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Cardinals 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:42 left): the Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 38 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 49ers about even · −1 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Cardinals win 0.
- 1 SF 41 ARI 3
- 2 SF 34 ARI 3
- 3 SF 43 ARI 16
- 4 SF 30 ARI 7
- 5 SF 30 ARI 10
- 6 SF 34 ARI 17
- 7 SF 31 ARI 17
- 8 SF 37 ARI 26
- 9 SF 32 ARI 24
- 10 SF 31 ARI 27
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 99% of them, Cardinals 1%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 84.1% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 40 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Gould, 39 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: 49ers 3 for 30 yards, Cardinals 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:39 | Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards | +6% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:46 | Taunting on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yards | +5% SF +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +2% ARI +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:41 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:02 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yards | 0% ARI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 5:48 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Corey Clement), 10 yards | 0% SF +0.8 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:25 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:07 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% SF | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:53 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% SF | ARI: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:39 | Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:40 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 9:42 | The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% SF | ARI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:50 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:57 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% SF | SF: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 2.0 pts
- Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out · 1.1 pts
- Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Samson Ebukam (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
- Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 100% · Cardinals 0%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 28
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 24.2
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 99% · Cardinals 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · 
49ers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 11 2022
- Titans at Packers TEN 27–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Ravens BAL 13–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns vs Bills BUF 31–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Lions at Giants DET 31–18 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rams at Saints NO 27–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 10–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Colts PHI 17–16 · replay 75% for the winner
- Commanders at Texans WAS 23–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 22–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 37–30 · replay 95% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 40–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 30–27 · replay 96% for the winner