Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022
Browns vs Bills, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Browns 31–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.9 points to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Bills were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:53 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 11, worth 13 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 23 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Bills lucky · −30 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 3, Bills win 7.
- 1 CLE 43 BUF 23
- 2 CLE 17 BUF 10
- 3 CLE 34 BUF 31
- 4 CLE 41 BUF 43
- 5 CLE 21 BUF 26
- 6 CLE 24 BUF 31
- 7 CLE 26 BUF 37
- 8 CLE 22 BUF 37
- 9 CLE 21 BUF 41
- 10 CLE 27 BUF 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 29% of them, Bills 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 4.2% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Bills by 17+ | 24.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bills by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 2.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 42 yds made · 86% expected
- C. York, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- T. Bass, 36 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Bass, 56 yds made · 65% expected
- C. York, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
- T. Bass, 49 yds made · 77% expected
- T. Bass, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- T. Bass, 39 yds made · 90% expected
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +13% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:39 | The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:37 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Kareem Hunt), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 | +7% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:13 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedP. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 12 catchable balls before this | +10% BUF | CLE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:32 | The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:08 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% BUF | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:06 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 5:57 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% BUF | CLE: Missed field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
- Kaiir Elam (BUF DB), out · 0.4 pts
- Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 43% · Bills 57%
- Final margin
- Bills by 8
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 29% · Bills 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · 
Browns · 
Bills
More from Week 11 2022
- Titans at Packers TEN 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Ravens BAL 13–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Giants DET 31–18 · replay 36% for the winner
- Rams at Saints NO 27–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 10–3 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eagles at Colts PHI 17–16 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Texans WAS 23–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 22–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 37–30 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 40–3 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 30–27 · replay 88% for the winner
- 49ers vs Cardinals SF 38–10 · replay 97% for the winner