luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Bears at Falcons, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Bears 27–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:13 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 37 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Chicago Bears 24
Atlanta Falcons 27

November 20, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +13 Falcons about even · −13 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 24 ATL 17
  2. 2 CHI 14 ATL 16
  3. 3 CHI 23 ATL 28
  4. 4 CHI 14 ATL 22
  5. 5 CHI 13 ATL 24
  6. 6 CHI 10 ATL 24
  7. 7 CHI 7 ATL 23
  8. 8 CHI 9 ATL 28
  9. 9 CHI 6 ATL 29
  10. 10 CHI 6 ATL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 13% of them, Falcons 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.6%
Bears by 9–162.8%
Bears by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Falcons by 1–820.1%
Falcons by 9–1624.8%
Falcons by 17+41.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 7.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Santos, 56 yds missed · 64% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:59 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:08 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:31 Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +14% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:14 C. Santos missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 17 of 25 from 45+ before +10% ATL CHI: Punt
5 Q4 4:19 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% CHI ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 3:30 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +17% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 1:52 Y. Koo made 53-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 30 of 36 from 45+ before +10% ATL ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:13 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +37% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 15% · Falcons 85%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
4.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 13% · Falcons 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Bears · Falcons

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