Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022
Bears at Falcons, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Bears 27–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:13 left): the Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 24 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Falcons about even · −13 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Falcons win 9.
- 1 CHI 20 ATL 14
- 2 CHI 14 ATL 16
- 3 CHI 17 ATL 21
- 4 CHI 17 ATL 24
- 5 CHI 7 ATL 17
- 6 CHI 17 ATL 30
- 7 CHI 7 ATL 23
- 8 CHI 20 ATL 39
- 9 CHI 6 ATL 30
- 10 CHI 0 ATL 29
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 13% of them, Falcons 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 7.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 23.2% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 44.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 41 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Santos, 56 yds missed · 67% expected
- Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 91% expected
- Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Bears 7 for 56 yards, Falcons 2 for 13 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:31 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Justin Jones), 6 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:53 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:45 | Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +3% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CHI +2.3 pts |
| Q3 9:29 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:41 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears, 15 yards | +8% ATL +2.1 pts |
| Q4 12:29 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Byron Pringle), 10 yards | +9% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 3 yards | +5% CHI +1.9 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:59 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +9% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:31 | Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams | +14% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:14 | C. Santos missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 17 of 25 from 45+ before | +10% ATL | CHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:53 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:29 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Byron Pringle), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1974 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 | +9% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:30 | The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +14% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:52 | Y. Koo made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 30 of 36 from 45+ before | +10% ATL | ATL: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:13 | The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +15% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
- Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 7% · Falcons 93%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 13% · Falcons 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · 
Bears · 
Falcons
More from Week 11 2022
- Titans at Packers TEN 27–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Ravens BAL 13–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Browns vs Bills BUF 31–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Lions at Giants DET 31–18 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rams at Saints NO 27–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 10–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Colts PHI 17–16 · replay 75% for the winner
- Commanders at Texans WAS 23–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 22–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 37–30 · replay 95% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 40–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 30–27 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers vs Cardinals SF 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner