2022 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2022: game by game

The Falcons went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–8.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Saints	L 26–27	35%	−35
Week 2	@ Rams	L 27–31	18%	−18
Week 3	@ Seahawks	W 27–23	54%	+46
Week 4	vs Browns	W 23–20	52%	+48
Week 5	@ Buccaneers	L 15–21	34%	−34
Week 6	vs 49ers	W 28–14	78%	+22
Week 7	@ Bengals	L 17–35	4%	−4
Week 8	vs Panthers	W 37–34	59%	+41
Week 9	vs Chargers	L 17–20	69%	−69
Week 10	@ Panthers	L 15–25	66%	−66
Week 11	vs Bears	W 27–24	87%	+13
Week 12	@ Commanders	L 13–19	68%	−68
Week 13	vs Steelers	L 16–19	49%	−49
Week 15	@ Saints	L 18–21	21%	−21
Week 16	@ Ravens	L 9–17	21%	−21
Week 17	vs Cardinals	W 20–19	43%	+57
Week 18	vs Buccaneers	W 30–17	87%	+13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −35 vs NO

Wk 2 −18 @ LA

Wk 3 +46 @ SEA

Wk 4 +48 vs CLE

Wk 5 −34 @ TB

Wk 6 +22 vs SF

Wk 7 −4 @ CIN

Wk 8 +41 vs CAR

Wk 9 −69 vs LAC

Wk 10 −66 @ CAR

Wk 11 +13 vs CHI

Wk 12 −68 @ WAS

Wk 13 −49 vs PIT

Wk 15 −21 @ NO

Wk 16 −21 @ BAL

Wk 17 +57 vs ARI

Wk 18 +13 vs TB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.44	+5.8
Injuries	+0.16	+7.0
Drops	+0.07	+4.9
Rest	−0.04	−1.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	+2.7
Fumble bounces	−0.34	−2.6