2022 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2022: game by game

The Falcons went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–8.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Saints	L 26–27	37%	−37
Week 2	@ Rams	L 27–31	18%	−18
Week 3	@ Seahawks	W 27–23	54%	+46
Week 4	vs Browns	W 23–20	53%	+47
Week 5	@ Buccaneers	L 15–21	36%	−36
Week 6	vs 49ers	W 28–14	73%	+27
Week 7	@ Bengals	L 17–35	8%	−8
Week 8	vs Panthers	W 37–34	58%	+42
Week 9	vs Chargers	L 17–20	55%	−55
Week 10	@ Panthers	L 15–25	67%	−67
Week 11	vs Bears	W 27–24	87%	+13
Week 12	@ Commanders	L 13–19	67%	−67
Week 13	vs Steelers	L 16–19	60%	−60
Week 15	@ Saints	L 18–21	33%	−33
Week 16	@ Ravens	L 9–17	22%	−22
Week 17	vs Cardinals	W 20–19	58%	+42
Week 18	vs Buccaneers	W 30–17	86%	+14

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −37 vs NO

Wk 2 −18 @ LA

Wk 3 +46 @ SEA

Wk 4 +47 vs CLE

Wk 5 −36 @ TB

Wk 6 +27 vs SF

Wk 7 −8 @ CIN

Wk 8 +42 vs CAR

Wk 9 −55 vs LAC

Wk 10 −67 @ CAR

Wk 11 +13 vs CHI

Wk 12 −67 @ WAS

Wk 13 −60 vs PIT

Wk 15 −33 @ NO

Wk 16 −22 @ BAL

Wk 17 +42 vs ARI

Wk 18 +14 vs TB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+11.8	+0.69
Injuries	+9.4	+0.55
Drops	+5.7	+0.33
3rd & 4th downs	+3.7	+0.22
Kicks	+0.2	+0.01
Fumble bounces	−1.6	−0.09
Rest	−1.6	−0.09