luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 30–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:33 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 3, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Atlanta Falcons 30

January 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −6

Luck index +14 Falcons about even · −14 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 TB 12 ATL 7
  2. 2 TB 27 ATL 29
  3. 3 TB 12 ATL 17
  4. 4 TB 14 ATL 21
  5. 5 TB 13 ATL 24
  6. 6 TB 17 ATL 31
  7. 7 TB 19 ATL 35
  8. 8 TB 2 ATL 22
  9. 9 TB 9 ATL 34
  10. 10 TB 3 ATL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 14% of them, Falcons 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+1.1%
Buccaneers by 9–163.0%
Buccaneers by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Falcons by 1–819.8%
Falcons by 9–1624.0%
Falcons by 17+41.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 49 yds made · 81% expected
  • R. Succop, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:44 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:31 The Falcons converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:10 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q2 4:08 The Falcons fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% TB ATL: Punt
5 Q2 1:50 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:33 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:54 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:20 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donovan Smith (TB T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Julio Jones (TB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 18% · Falcons 82%

Final margin
Falcons by 13
Luck in points
7.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 14% · Falcons 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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