luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Ravens at Bengals, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 27–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.1 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:36 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 16
Cincinnati Bengals 27

January 8, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −11

Luck index +22 Bengals about even · −22 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 BAL 29 CIN 16
  2. 2 BAL 20 CIN 17
  3. 3 BAL 14 CIN 16
  4. 4 BAL 20 CIN 24
  5. 5 BAL 20 CIN 27
  6. 6 BAL 13 CIN 23
  7. 7 BAL 17 CIN 30
  8. 8 BAL 9 CIN 25
  9. 9 BAL 6 CIN 26
  10. 10 BAL 0 CIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 22% of them, Bengals 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+2.4%
Ravens by 9–166.7%
Ravens by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.5%
Bengals by 1–824.8%
Bengals by 9–1620.3%
Bengals by 17+31.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q1 7:39 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 5:01 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CIN BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 4:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 0:36 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +14% CIN BAL: End of half
7 Q3 1:09 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedT. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 84 catchable balls before this +4% BAL CIN: Punt
8 Q4 6:06 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedD. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 51 catchable balls before this +3% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by a.brown · 5.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 1% · Bengals 99%

Final margin
Bengals by 11
Luck in points
4.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 22% · Bengals 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Ravens · Bengals

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