luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Cowboys at Commanders, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Cowboys 26–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.5 points to the Cowboys.

An off day for the Cowboys: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:43 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 24 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 6
Washington Commanders 26

January 8, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +6 Commanders about even · −6 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 1, Commanders win 9.

  1. 1 DAL 22 WAS 17
  2. 2 DAL 21 WAS 24
  3. 3 DAL 13 WAS 19
  4. 4 DAL 10 WAS 19
  5. 5 DAL 13 WAS 26
  6. 6 DAL 17 WAS 31
  7. 7 DAL 3 WAS 21
  8. 8 DAL 13 WAS 34
  9. 9 DAL 16 WAS 44
  10. 10 DAL 6 WAS 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cowboys

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

58 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained −0.39 +0.15 worse by 0.54
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.08 better by 0.17
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.06 worse by 0.14
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.39 +0.09 better by 0.48

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 6% of them, Commanders 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.2%
Cowboys by 9–161.1%
Cowboys by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation0.8%
Commanders by 1–88.6%
Commanders by 9–1618.5%
Commanders by 17+66.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 15.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 31 yds missed · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 52 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WAS DAL: Punt
3 Q1 8:55 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedT. McLaurin dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 81 catchable balls before this +6% DAL WAS: Punt
4 Q1 6:39 J. Slye missed 31-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +6% DAL WAS: Turnover
5 Q1 4:53 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q1 3:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Trayvon Mullen), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 2220 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
7 Q2 12:43 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +24% WAS DAL: Punt
8 Q3 5:49 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedT. Hilton dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 7 catchable balls before this +5% WAS DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carson Wentz (WAS QB), out, replaced by s.howell · 1.4 pts
  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kamren Curl (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Norwell (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 3% · Commanders 97%

Final margin
Commanders by 20
Luck in points
4.7 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 6% · Commanders 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Cowboys · Commanders

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