luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Lions at Packers, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 20–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 3.5 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:41 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
Green Bay Packers 16

January 8, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5.5

Luck index +43 Lions lucky · −43 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Packers win 4.

  1. 1 DET 40 GB 16
  2. 2 DET 27 GB 12
  3. 3 DET 24 GB 13
  4. 4 DET 43 GB 34
  5. 5 DET 18 GB 13
  6. 6 DET 17 GB 16
  7. 7 DET 17 GB 20
  8. 8 DET 21 GB 27
  9. 9 DET 13 GB 24
  10. 10 DET 14 GB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 57% of them, Packers 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+13.9%
Lions by 9–1616.2%
Lions by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Packers by 1–820.4%
Packers by 9–1613.5%
Packers by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 11.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Crosby, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 46 yds missed · 68% expected
  • M. Badgley, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Crosby, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 46 yardsJudgment calls +10% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 8:35 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% DET GB: Field goal
3 Q1 2:45 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% DET GB: Field goal
4 Q2 11:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +22% GB GB: Turnover
5 Q2 8:27 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% DET DET: Missed field goal
6 Q3 1:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (John Cominsky), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1259 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +19% GB GB: Punt
7 Q4 9:18 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:37 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kayode Awosika (DET T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 82% · Packers 18%

Final margin
Lions by 4
Luck in points
7.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Lions 57% · Packers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Lions · Packers

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