luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Lions at Packers, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 20–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Packers.

An off day for the Packers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:41 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
Green Bay Packers 16

January 8, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5.5

Luck index +30 Lions lucky · −30 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 DET 27 GB 0
  2. 2 DET 33 GB 14
  3. 3 DET 31 GB 17
  4. 4 DET 41 GB 31
  5. 5 DET 30 GB 22
  6. 6 DET 19 GB 14
  7. 7 DET 26 GB 24
  8. 8 DET 27 GB 30
  9. 9 DET 21 GB 28
  10. 10 DET 20 GB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.

32 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Lions offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.11 better by 0.01
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.18 better by 0.22
Packers offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.12 worse by 0.17
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.13 better by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 70% of them, Packers 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+21.6%
Lions by 9–1621.3%
Lions by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation3.5%
Packers by 1–816.5%
Packers by 9–167.8%
Packers by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 4, without the luck Lions by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Crosby, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 46 yds missed · 68% expected
  • M. Badgley, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Crosby, 53 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 5 for 75 yards, Packers 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 46 yards +10% GB +2.9 pts
Q2 11:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play +22% GB +7.2 pts
Q2 4:00 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 2:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.8 pts
Q2 0:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards +4% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 2:18 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DET +1.6 pts
Q3 1:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (John Cominsky), 5 yards, wiping out the play +19% GB +4.2 pts
Q4 7:55 Disqualification on the Packers, 5 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 2:17 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% GB +1.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 46 yardsJudgment calls +10% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 8:35 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% DET GB: Field goal
3 Q2 13:01 M. Crosby made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 20 of 26 from 45+ before +7% GB GB: Turnover
4 Q2 11:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +22% GB GB: Turnover
5 Q2 8:27 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% DET DET: Missed field goal
6 Q3 9:37 M. Crosby missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 21 of 27 from 45+ before +8% DET GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (John Cominsky), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1259 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +19% GB GB: Punt
8 Q4 9:18 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kayode Awosika (DET T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 62% · Packers 38%

Final margin
Lions by 4
Luck in points
1.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Lions 70% · Packers 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Lions · Packers

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