luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Jets at Dolphins, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 11–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 3.4 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:23 left): J. Sanders made 50-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New York Jets 6
Miami Dolphins 11

January 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3.5

Luck index +20 Dolphins about even · −20 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Dolphins win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 MIA 5
  2. 2 NYJ 13 MIA 10
  3. 3 NYJ 17 MIA 19
  4. 4 NYJ 23 MIA 27
  5. 5 NYJ 9 MIA 16
  6. 6 NYJ 3 MIA 12
  7. 7 NYJ 6 MIA 17
  8. 8 NYJ 0 MIA 14
  9. 9 NYJ 0 MIA 19
  10. 10 NYJ 0 MIA 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 20% of them, Dolphins 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.3%
Jets by 9–164.9%
Jets by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Dolphins by 1–829.2%
Dolphins by 9–1623.2%
Dolphins by 17+27.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds missed · 60% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:07 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q3 9:03 The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +13% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q3 2:34 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% MIA MIA: Punt
4 Q3 1:01 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 8:55 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 8:13 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 2:00 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2404 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +12% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q4 0:23 J. Sanders made 50-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 41 of 61 from 45+ before +20% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by s.thompson · 6.1 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.9 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Herbig (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (NYJ TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 52% · Dolphins 48%

Final margin
Dolphins by 5
Luck in points
1.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 20% · Dolphins 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Jets · Dolphins

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