luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2022 · January 7, 2023

Titans at Jaguars, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 20–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 67% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 3:01 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 72 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 20

January 7, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6

Luck index +26 Jaguars lucky · −26 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 19 JAX 3
  2. 2 TEN 23 JAX 16
  3. 3 TEN 13 JAX 10
  4. 4 TEN 7 JAX 9
  5. 5 TEN 23 JAX 27
  6. 6 TEN 3 JAX 9
  7. 7 TEN 17 JAX 27
  8. 8 TEN 7 JAX 20
  9. 9 TEN 6 JAX 22
  10. 10 TEN 7 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 26% of them, Jaguars 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+2.5%
Titans by 9–167.0%
Titans by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation5.4%
Jaguars by 1–826.8%
Jaguars by 9–1623.5%
Jaguars by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 4, without the luck Titans by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Bullock, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 40 yards, Jaguars 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:29 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 11:37 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 1:58 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +2.0 pts
Q1 1:40 Illegal Forward Pass on the Titans, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 11:51 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:31 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 11:28 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 11 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 1:56 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% JAX +4.0 pts
Q4 1:46 False Start on the Titans (Austin Hooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:59 The Titans converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q2 11:37 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% JAX JAX: Turnover
3 Q2 9:30 The Jaguars fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:56 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 0:53 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +9% JAX TEN: Punt
6 Q4 3:01 The game turned hereThe Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +72% JAX TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:55 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:37 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.9 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Adams (TEN SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 21% · Jaguars 79%

Final margin
Jaguars by 4
Luck in points
4.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 26% · Jaguars 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Titans · Jaguars

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