luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Rams at Seahawks, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Rams 19–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Myers missed 46-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 16
Seattle Seahawks 19

January 8, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −5.5

Luck index +22 Seahawks about even · −22 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 LA 29 SEA 14
  2. 2 LA 31 SEA 28
  3. 3 LA 25 SEA 27
  4. 4 LA 16 SEA 22
  5. 5 LA 10 SEA 19
  6. 6 LA 10 SEA 21
  7. 7 LA 13 SEA 27
  8. 8 LA 23 SEA 40
  9. 9 LA 13 SEA 34
  10. 10 LA 3 SEA 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 22% of them, Seahawks 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+2.9%
Rams by 9–166.6%
Rams by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Seahawks by 1–824.7%
Seahawks by 9–1619.9%
Seahawks by 17+32.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 46 yds missed · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:38 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q2 2:13 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:15 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% LA LA: Punt
4 Q4 4:32 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q4 2:27 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% LA SEA: Field goal
6 Q4 0:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 4353 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +16% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:03 J. Myers missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 25 of 32 from 45+ before +26% LA SEA: Punt
8 QOT 9:30 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% LA SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordyn Brooks (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Neal (SEA SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marquise Goodwin (SEA WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 1.0 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ben Skowronek (LA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Scott (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 37% · Seahawks 63%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Rams 22% · Seahawks 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Rams · Seahawks

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