2022 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2022: game by game

The Rams went 5–12 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bills	L 10–31	16%	−16
Week 2	vs Falcons	W 31–27	82%	+18
Week 3	@ Cardinals	W 20–12	80%	+20
Week 4	@ 49ers	L 9–24	11%	−11
Week 5	vs Cowboys	L 10–22	65%	−65
Week 6	vs Panthers	W 24–10	91%	+9
Week 8	vs 49ers	L 14–31	50%	−50
Week 9	@ Buccaneers	L 13–16	29%	−29
Week 10	vs Cardinals	L 17–27	12%	−12
Week 11	@ Saints	L 20–27	20%	−20
Week 12	@ Chiefs	L 10–26	1%	−1
Week 13	vs Seahawks	L 23–27	10%	−10
Week 14	vs Raiders	W 17–16	31%	+69
Week 15	@ Packers	L 12–24	1%	−1
Week 16	vs Broncos	W 51–14	93%	+7
Week 17	@ Chargers	L 10–31	7%	−7
Week 18	@ Seahawks	L 16–19	20%	−20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −16 vs BUF

Wk 2 +18 vs ATL

Wk 3 +20 @ ARI

Wk 4 −11 @ SF

Wk 5 −65 vs DAL

Wk 6 +9 vs CAR

Wk 8 −50 vs SF

Wk 9 −29 @ TB

Wk 10 −12 vs ARI

Wk 11 −20 @ NO

Wk 12 −1 @ KC

Wk 13 −10 vs SEA

Wk 14 +69 vs LV

Wk 15 −1 @ GB

Wk 16 +7 vs DEN

Wk 17 −7 @ LAC

Wk 18 −20 @ SEA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.58	+8.2
Drops	+0.38	+18.5
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−6.4
Judgment calls	−0.08	−0.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.15	+1.3
Injuries	−0.64	−30.5