luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

49ers at Rams, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Rams 31–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:13 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 31
Los Angeles Rams 14

October 30, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −1

Luck index +50 49ers lucky · −50 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Rams win 5.

  1. 1 SF 35 LA 16
  2. 2 SF 17 LA 6
  3. 3 SF 10 LA 3
  4. 4 SF 39 LA 35
  5. 5 SF 14 LA 13
  6. 6 SF 21 LA 23
  7. 7 SF 21 LA 26
  8. 8 SF 17 LA 26
  9. 9 SF 10 LA 23
  10. 10 SF 9 LA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 50% of them, Rams 50%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+7.7%
49ers by 9–1613.2%
49ers by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation7.3%
Rams by 1–822.9%
Rams by 9–1614.8%
Rams by 17+8.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 17, without the luck 49ers by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: 49ers 3 for 8 yards, Rams 4 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:54 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Ambry Thomas), 2 yards +3% LA +0.7 pts
Q1 1:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 1 yard +3% LA +1.3 pts
Q1 0:01 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 6:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Taylor Rapp), 15 yards +5% SF +1.8 pts
Q2 5:43 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Justin Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 0:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 15 yards +7% SF +1.8 pts
Q4 11:23 Taunting on the Rams (Allen Robinson), 15 yards +1% SF +1.4 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:13 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:07 C. McCaffrey dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +9% LA SF: Field goal
3 Q3 13:38 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% SF SF: Punt
4 Q3 10:31 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% LA LA: Punt
5 Q3 7:23 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:58 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 930 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +6% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:00 T. Higbee dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 39 catchable balls before this +7% SF LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Coleman Shelton (LA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Rams 0%

Final margin
49ers by 17
Luck in points
0.9 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
49ers 50% · Rams 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · 49ers · Rams

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