luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

49ers at Rams, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Rams 31–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 1.6 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:58 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 31
Los Angeles Rams 14

October 30, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −1

Luck index +37 49ers lucky · −37 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 6, Rams win 4.

  1. 1 SF 33 LA 13
  2. 2 SF 31 LA 17
  3. 3 SF 24 LA 14
  4. 4 SF 7 LA 0
  5. 5 SF 31 LA 27
  6. 6 SF 15 LA 13
  7. 7 SF 14 LA 16
  8. 8 SF 21 LA 27
  9. 9 SF 10 LA 20
  10. 10 SF 10 LA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 63% of them, Rams 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+12.8%
49ers by 9–1617.3%
49ers by 1–830.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Rams by 1–819.1%
Rams by 9–1612.2%
Rams by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 13.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:13 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:07 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedC. McCaffrey dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +9% LA SF: Field goal
3 Q3 13:38 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% SF SF: Punt
4 Q3 7:23 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:58 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:05 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% SF LA: Punt
7 Q3 0:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 930 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:00 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedT. Higbee dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 39 catchable balls before this +9% SF LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Coleman Shelton (LA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 98% · Rams 2%

Final margin
49ers by 17
Luck in points
3.5 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 13.5
Replay with same day's form
49ers 63% · Rams 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · 49ers · Rams

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