luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 31, 2022

Bengals at Browns, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 32–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:56 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 13
Cleveland Browns 32

October 31, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +19 Browns about even · −19 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 36 CLE 24
  2. 2 CIN 20 CLE 17
  3. 3 CIN 26 CLE 28
  4. 4 CIN 16 CLE 20
  5. 5 CIN 17 CLE 24
  6. 6 CIN 19 CLE 30
  7. 7 CIN 17 CLE 31
  8. 8 CIN 14 CLE 31
  9. 9 CIN 0 CLE 23
  10. 10 CIN 17 CLE 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 19% of them, Browns 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+2.3%
Bengals by 9–165.6%
Bengals by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Browns by 1–826.1%
Browns by 9–1621.5%
Browns by 17+31.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 16.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 53 yds blocked · 64% expected
  • E. McPherson, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • C. York, 55 yds made · 59% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:38 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% CIN CIN: Turnover
2 Q1 11:33 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q1 10:51 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CLE CIN: Punt
4 Q1 6:23 C. York had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 64% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before +11% CIN CLE: Turnover
5 Q1 4:54 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% CIN CIN: Punt
6 Q1 2:52 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CLE CIN: Punt
7 Q2 9:24 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:56 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CIN CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Eli Apple (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Browns 100%

Final margin
Browns by 19
Luck in points
2.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 19% · Browns 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Bengals · Browns

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