luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Giants at Seahawks, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Giants 27–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Giants: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:52 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 11, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 13
Seattle Seahawks 27

October 30, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +9 Seahawks about even · −9 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Seahawks win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 19 SEA 13
  2. 2 NYG 23 SEA 26
  3. 3 NYG 23 SEA 29
  4. 4 NYG 20 SEA 29
  5. 5 NYG 13 SEA 24
  6. 6 NYG 20 SEA 34
  7. 7 NYG 9 SEA 26
  8. 8 NYG 12 SEA 33
  9. 9 NYG 7 SEA 33
  10. 10 NYG 3 SEA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

31 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.05 worse by 0.13
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.13 better by 0.09
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.14 worse by 0.10
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.11 better by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 9% of them, Seahawks 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.7%
Giants by 9–162.0%
Giants by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation0.7%
Seahawks by 1–816.1%
Seahawks by 9–1621.5%
Seahawks by 17+53.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 14, without the luck Seahawks by 12.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 53 yards, Seahawks 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:53 Illegal Blindside Block on the Giants (Cam Brown), 15 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:19 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 0:38 Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yards +8% SEA +1.3 pts
Q2 8:43 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Matt Breida), 8 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 12:07 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NYG +1.5 pts
Q3 10:28 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 2:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 15 yards 0% NYG +1.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:38 Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1585 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:42 The Seahawks converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:37 The Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG SEA: Punt
4 Q2 2:39 The Giants fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% SEA NYG: Punt
5 Q3 10:03 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q3 2:47 J. Myers made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 21 of 28 from 45+ before +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:52 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 15:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Oshane Ximines (NYG LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Seahawks 98%

Final margin
Seahawks by 14
Luck in points
1.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 9% · Seahawks 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Giants · Seahawks

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