luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Patriots at Jets, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 22–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.8 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:48 left): the Jets were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 18 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 22
New York Jets 17

October 30, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +55 Patriots lucky · −55 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 NE 37 NYJ 13
  2. 2 NE 36 NYJ 20
  3. 3 NE 32 NYJ 20
  4. 4 NE 21 NYJ 15
  5. 5 NE 23 NYJ 21
  6. 6 NE 13 NYJ 16
  7. 7 NE 24 NYJ 30
  8. 8 NE 9 NYJ 20
  9. 9 NE 6 NYJ 21
  10. 10 NE 23 NYJ 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 45% of them, Jets 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+10.5%
Patriots by 9–1615.3%
Patriots by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation5.1%
Jets by 1–820.1%
Jets by 9–1615.8%
Jets by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 5.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:03 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 6:19 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q1 5:23 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% NYJ NE: Field goal
5 Q2 0:48 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% NE NYJ: Missed field goal
6 Q2 0:37 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1530 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +14% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q3 6:07 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% NYJ NE: Field goal
8 Q4 12:13 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NE NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 1.1 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 37% · Jets 63%

Final margin
Patriots by 5
Luck in points
10.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 45% · Jets 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Patriots · Jets

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