2022 season · final
New England Patriots, 2022: game by game
The Patriots went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Dolphins | L 7–20 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 2 | @ Steelers | W 17–14 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | vs Ravens | L 26–37 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | L 24–27 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 5 | vs Lions | W 29–0 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 6 | @ Browns | W 38–15 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 7 | vs Bears | L 14–33 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 8 | @ Jets | W 22–17 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 26–3 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 11 | vs Jets | W 10–3 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | @ Vikings | L 26–33 | 79% | −79 |
| Week 13 | vs Bills | L 10–24 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 14 | @ Cardinals | W 27–13 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 15 | @ Raiders | L 24–30 | 72% | −72 |
| Week 16 | vs Bengals | L 18–22 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | W 23–21 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 18 | @ Bills | L 23–35 | 11% | −11 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.24 | +7.4 |
| Kicks | −0.03 | +0.8 |
| Rest | −0.06 | −2.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.22 | −1.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.25 | −8.8 |
| Drops | −0.48 | +2.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.63 | +10.4 |