luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Patriots at Steelers, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Steelers 17–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.8 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:30 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 3, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 14

September 18, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +22 Patriots about even · −22 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 NE 38 PIT 10
  2. 2 NE 29 PIT 10
  3. 3 NE 33 PIT 17
  4. 4 NE 20 PIT 7
  5. 5 NE 28 PIT 19
  6. 6 NE 30 PIT 24
  7. 7 NE 13 PIT 9
  8. 8 NE 19 PIT 17
  9. 9 NE 20 PIT 23
  10. 10 NE 13 PIT 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 78% of them, Steelers 22%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+25.6%
Patriots by 9–1621.1%
Patriots by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation4.9%
Steelers by 1–812.8%
Steelers by 9–165.9%
Steelers by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 11.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds missed · 68% expected
  • C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:53 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% PIT NE: Punt
2 Q2 13:40 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 12:19 The Steelers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +11% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 0:30 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +22% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:06 The Steelers fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +12% NE PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:31 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q4 12:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% NE NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 98% · Steelers 2%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
8.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 78% · Steelers 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Patriots · Steelers

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